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National Journal Article – Ben Tulchin on the Impact of Donald Trump in Congressional Races

October 28th, 2016 · News

The Late-Breaking Democratic House Targets

The party sees fresh opportunities in districts that have previously gone uncontested. By Kimberly Railey Repub­lic­ans are likely to re­tain their House ma­jor­ity, but a hand­ful of late-break­ing races are sud­denly for­cing the party to play de­fense in un­ex­pec­ted ter­rit­ory. Most stun­ningly, na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­ans are steer­ing $1.2 mil­lion to an open seat in In­di­ana that Mitt Rom­ney last car­ried by double di­gits. In Flor­ida, the party is send­ing $1.4 mil­lion to try to bail out vet­er­an Rep. John Mica in a newly re­drawn dis­trict. And in Cali­for­nia, Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Dar­rell Issa, the wealth­i­est mem­ber of Con­gress, is fight­ing strong head­winds in af­flu­ent sub­urbs where Don­ald Trump is highly un­pop­u­lar. “There is a col­lect­ive will on the Re­pub­lic­an side to make sure we don’t leave any­thing to chance,” said one GOP strategist in­volved with House races and gran­ted an­onym­ity to speak can­didly. “This is a really weird elec­tion.” To Demo­crats, the new spend­ing sig­nals an en­vir­on­ment break­ing in their fa­vor. “Some of these Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bents have not done the work they needed to shore up their dis­tricts, and we’re see­ing Demo­crat­ic en­thu­si­asm and a dis­taste for the Re­pub­lic­an Party among in­de­pend­ents that very well could lead to pick­ing up one, two, or all three of these seats,” said Alix­an­dria Lapp, the ex­ec­ut­ive dir­ect­or of House Ma­jor­ity PAC. In In­di­ana’s open 9th Dis­trict, which Trump is ex­pec­ted to com­fort­ably carry, unique can­did­ate cir­cum­stances have promp­ted a rare burst of spend­ing. Re­pub­lic­ans nom­in­ated Trey Hollings­worth, a Ten­ness­ee busi­ness­man who took a beat­ing in the primary for only re­cently mov­ing to the dis­trict and for heav­ily self-fund­ing. In the months since, even Re­pub­lic­ans con­cede that his im­age hasn’t sig­ni­fic­antly im­proved. Demo­crat Shelli Yo­der, who was Miss In­di­ana in 1992, of­fers an un­help­ful con­trast for Hollings­worth, and House Ma­jor­ity PAC is spend­ing $650,000 in the dis­trict on her be­half. Hollings­worth’s cam­paign is jump­ing on that out­side help to tie Yo­der to House Minor­ity Lead­er Nancy Pelosi. “Those mor­als, val­ues, and ideals don’t line up with where Hoo­siers stand,” said Rob Bur­gess, a Hollings­worth spokes­man. Most GOP strategists be­lieve that Hollings­worth will ul­ti­mately pre­vail thanks to the dis­trict’s par­tis­an lean. And on the whole, Re­pub­lic­ans deny their that new spend­ing there—or in Flor­ida—points to a dra­mat­ic­ally ex­pan­ded bat­tle­field. “Demo­crats failed to re­cruit in a slew of com­pet­it­ive seats that they des­per­ately needed to win in or­der to ever reach the ma­jor­ity,” said Katie Mar­tin, a spokes­wo­man for the Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Con­gres­sion­al Com­mit­tee. Still, Re­pub­lic­ans con­cede that they have a re­mark­ably tough fight in Mica’s Cent­ral Flor­ida dis­trict, where the NR­CC dir­ec­ted a late wave of spend­ing. Un­der Flor­ida’s new con­gres­sion­al map, Pres­id­ent Obama and Mitt Rom­ney would have dead­locked in the 7th Dis­trict with 49 per­cent of the vote. Demo­crats fielded polit­ic­al new­comer Stephanie Murphy, a na­tion­al se­cur­ity spe­cial­ist who fled com­mun­ist Vi­et­nam by boat with her fam­ily. Already, Demo­crat­ic groups have shelled out nearly $4 mil­lion to boost her bid. Even Re­pub­lic­ans lament that the 38-year-old Murphy is a com­pel­ling can­did­ate against Mica, a 12-term in­cum­bent. Privately, they grumble that Mica could have done more to in­su­late him­self from a chal­lenge, in­tro­du­cing him­self earli­er to the por­tion of the dis­trict he didn’t pre­vi­ously rep­res­ent and amass­ing stronger fun­drais­ing hauls. In an in­ter­view, Mica pushed back against cri­ti­cism that he has not run an ag­gress­ive enough cam­paign. Ac­cord­ing to his in­tern­al polling, he ad­ded, he is beat­ing Murphy in the part of the dis­trict that is new. “They don’t have a clue,” he said of his crit­ics with­in the party. “We tar­geted the new part of the dis­trict in the primary. We walked it, we called it, we mailed it—you couldn’t do any more than we did.” But the NR­CC still saw reas­on to pump in $1.4 mil­lion for him in the race’s fi­nal two weeks, launch­ing its first TV ad Wed­nes­day. In Cali­for­nia, Re­pub­lic­ans also be­lieve Issa waited too long to mount a for­mid­able cam­paign. His race took on na­tion­al at­ten­tion in June, when Demo­crat Doug Ap­pleg­ate pulled in a sur­pris­ing 45 per­cent of the vote in the top-two primary after run­ning a fairly mod­est cam­paign. Re­pub­lic­ans said Issa could have shut down this race by spend­ing more money over the sum­mer, but he only re­cently went on the air. Mean­while, Issa has emerged as a strong sup­port­er of Trump, un­like many of his vul­ner­able GOP col­leagues. “This is a great proof point for the im­pact Trump has had,” said Demo­crat­ic poll­ster Ben Tulchin, who works on the race for the Demo­crat­ic Con­gres­sion­al Cam­paign Com­mit­tee’s in­de­pend­ent-ex­pendit­ure arm. The NR­CC has not spent in the 49th Dis­trict, per­haps a res­ult of Issa’s per­son­al wealth. Demo­crat­ic groups have steered more than $3 mil­lion to the dis­trict. “I think Nancy Pelosi is cer­tainly com­ing after the con­gress­man, and I think the con­gress­man wanted to make sure we were us­ing our money in the best way pos­sible,” said Issa spokes­man Calv­in Moore, de­fend­ing the cam­paign’s spend­ing de­cisions. Some oth­er re­cent in­vest­ments from GOP groups have raised eye­brows. The NR­CC launched an ad this week in Min­nesota tar­get­ing Demo­crat Terri Bonoff, des­pite pub­lic polls show­ing Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Erik Paulsen com­fort­ably lead­ing. The DCCC is con­tinu­ing to spend money in the race, and House Ma­jor­ity PAC re­cently ad­ded $800,000 to the dis­trict, after can­celing re­ser­va­tions there last month, ac­cord­ing to a Demo­crat­ic source. The Amer­ic­an Ac­tion Net­work is in­vest­ing in Vir­gin­ia’s 5th Dis­trict and Pennsylvania’s 16th Dis­trict, part of the GOP group’s ef­forts to build a Re­pub­lic­an fire­wall, along with its sis­ter su­per PAC, the Con­gres­sion­al Lead­er­ship Fund. An ex­pand­ing map is un­ques­tion­ably a pos­it­ive for Demo­crats, but the party likely won’t be match­ing Re­pub­lic­ans in some of those reach dis­tricts. “We are really only lim­ited by our budget in terms of the places we can go play,” Lapp said. Check out the link to the article here

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Op-Ed: Bernie Sanders’ pollster explains how Clinton can gain ground with millennial voters

October 6th, 2016 · News

Check out the link to the article here Ben Tulchin With the presidential race still too tight for comfort, polls point to one demographic where  Hillary Clinton could gain ground: millennial voters. In the final weeks, can she win over these 18- to 35-year-olds and keep them from throwing their support to third-party candidates? As the pollster for  Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign, I learned a lot about what issues engage this generation. Sanders didn’t start off with overwhelming support from millennials, after all. His campaign had to develop a strategy to earn their vote, and Clinton could still do the same. We learned from an extensive amount of survey research and focus groups that millennials are fundamentally progressive. How progressive? Among Democratic and independent millennials in some states, support for gay marriage is as high as 92%. Still, they feel they’ve been dealt a bad hand of economic recession, wage stagnation and political gridlock. They want income inequality, racial justice and climate change addressed urgently. Their mediocre job prospects and high levels of college debt led to overwhelming support for Sanders’ plan for free college tuition; up to 90% of Democratic and independent millennials in key states back the idea. But it wasn’t just economic issues that resonated with this generation. We also had In Michigan, for example, our first poll found Sanders leading Clinton among millennials by just 19 points. But once they heard his position on criminal justice reform, Flint’s tainted water, and his plan to provide free college tuition, he took a commanding 45-point lead in the survey. Notably, he gained ground with both white and African American millennials. We then did focus groups among young swing voters in Detroit. We showed them a series of ads to see which moved them. An ad focused on Flint’s water crisis stood out, as did one featuring Erica Garner, whose father was killed by police on TV. The latter brought many to tears and swayed several of these previously undecided voters. As one African American young man commented, “Now that is talking about the real issues facing our community.” This research laid the foundation for the Michigan Miracle, Sanders’ surprising upset in the primary. He won 81% of millennials in that primary. While Clinton is currently underperforming with millennials, she shares their values more than any other candidate. In a recent New York Times/CBS poll, however, 26% said they’d vote for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, and 10% said they’d vote for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. This is a huge pool of potential voters who abhor Trump and everything he stands for but are not yet backing Clinton. To turn them into Clinton supporters, her campaign will need to make a focused effort to show them that she authentically shares their values and is committed to addressing the issues they see as urgent. The college affordability plan she announced over the summer with Sanders was a good start, but it needs to be reiterated again and again in swing state after swing state. One thing no one disputes about Sanders and why he was so effective: He stayed on message. Clinton cannot simply roll out a policy speech on a college campus and move on. Instead, her team must drive it home with college students and other millennials everywhere day after day, and it must be echoed by a savvy social media campaign. Another opportunity for Clinton is to take a stronger stand in support of the Black Lives Matter movement in response to the recent shootings of unarmed black men by police. We found this was one of the most potent issues with millennials, regardless of ethnicity, in nearly all of the 46 states in which we polled. If Clinton were to stand firmly with African Americans and fully acknowledge their grievances with the criminal justice system, that would likely surprise millennials. Taking such a bold stand on a controversial issue would help Clinton connect with them on a cause about which they care deeply. While her advisors may recommend a more risk-averse approach, I would argue that this move makes political sense. Her upside with this large progressive generation could be significant, whereas even moderate Republicans are solidifying against her, leaving her little room to grow with them. While Clinton appears to have gotten a bump after the first presidential debate, her lead is still too thin considering she’s running against the most unpopular candidate in modern presidential history. She has a legitimate opportunity to make headway with this sizable and progressive generation. If the Clinton campaign gets the strategy, tone and focus just right, millennials can make the difference in this election and put the country’s first female president in the White House. Ben Tulchin, President of Tulchin Research, served as the pollster for Bernie Sanders’ campaign. Follow Tulchin Research on Facebook and Twitter
   

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Memo: Drug Price Relief Act Begins with Strong 73% Support from Californians

August 3rd, 2016 · News

Press-Release-POST-DEFAULT-LOGO Yes on Prop 61/Californians for Lower Drug Prices has released the results of a statewide survey that demonstrates strong, across-the-board support for Proposition 61, The California Drug Price Relief Act, a measure to reduce drug prices paid by the State of California. “We’re pleased that California voters have expressed such strong support for this initiative to cap drug prices,” said Garry South, lead strategist for the Yes on Prop. 61 campaign. “We don’t underestimate the effect of Big Pharma’s $100-million campaign of lies, distortions and self-serving misstatements about Prop. 61, but we start off in a very strong position. We’ll see if voters get as sick and tired of the Pharma ads against 61 as they are of the omnipresent drug-pushing ads that dominate the TV screen.” Tulchin Research conducted the statewide survey on behalf of Yes on Proposition 61 to assess the prospects of the statewide ballot measure to help reduce the state’s prescription drug costs by requiring the state to purchase drugs from drug companies at the lowest price those companies charge the federal government. The results reveal strong bipartisan support for the measure across the state. The survey finds that nearly three-quarters of voters would vote yes in support of Proposition 61 (73% yes with leaners, 66% without leaners). “Our research finds Proposition 61, the measure to lower drug prices in California, carries strong support among voters across the state and across key demographic groups,” said Ben Tulchin, president of Tulchin Research, and the chief pollster for the Bernie Sanders for president campaign. “Voters recognize the high cost of prescription drugs and support this effort to address the problem.” According to Tulchin, the strong majority support for Proposition 61 extends across nearly all demographic groups across the state including party, region, ethnicity and age. For example, the measure is supported (total yes) by:
  • 77% of Democrats
  • 70% of Republicans
  • 71% of Los Angeles area voters
  • 70% of Bay Area voters
  • 74% of San Diego voters
  • 73% of Sacramento voters
  • 75% of White voters
  • 72% of Latino voters
  • 81% of African-American voters
  • 73% of voters 18-49
  • 73% of voters 50+
See the full memo by clicking here: Californians for Lower Drug Prices Memo Tulchin Research conducted the statewide online survey in California among 800 likely November 2016 voters. Interviews were conducted from July 21-24, 2016. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.46 percent. Proposition 61, on the November ballot, would require the state of California to negotiate with drug companies for drug prices that are no more than is paid for the same drugs by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA).  Unlike Medicare, the DVA negotiates for drug prices on behalf of the millions of veterans it serves, and pays on average 20-24 percent less for medications than other government agencies, and up to 40 percent less than Medicare Part D.  Prop. 61 empowers the state, as the healthcare buyer for millions of Californians, to negotiate the same or an even better deal for taxpayers, saving the state billions.

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Memo: Why Bernie Sanders is Best to Defeat Donald Trump

March 29th, 2016 · News

Follow the link below to view our latest campaign memo on the state of the race. Tulchin Research Memo - Sanders Strongest Democrat 3-28-16 final

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We’ve Moved!

January 4th, 2016 · News

Please contact us at our new address and phone number listed below.

Phone: (415) 576-1072

Address: 220 Sansome St #1360

San Francisco, CA 94104

This is an evaluation image and is Copyright Chud Tsankov. Do not publish without acquiring a license. Image number: 0521-1003-2614-5821. http://www.acclaimimages.com/_gallery/_pages/0521-1003-2614-5821.html

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Bernie Sanders for President Polling Memo

November 18th, 2015 · News

bernielogo

‘Very Encouraging’ News for Sanders in Polls, Sanders Beats Republicans in General Election Matchups, Clinton Fares Poorly Among Independents and Republicans, Voters See Clinton as ‘Too Close to Special Interests and Wall Street’
WASHINGTON – Recent polls for major news organizations contained “very encouraging news” for Sen. Bernie Sanders and warning signs on Hillary Clinton’s general election prospects should she win the nomination, according to a memorandum by polling and strategic consulting expert Ben Tulchin. Significantly, Sanders fares better than Clinton in many head-to-head matchups with leading Republicans. The independent surveys show the senator from Vermont continues to close the gap with the former secretary of state while voters’ familiarity with Sanders and his favorability ratings are steadily rising, Sanders’ pollster said. Moreover, Sanders’ agenda has dominated the debate. His message about a rigged economy propped up by a corrupt campaign finance system “is driving the issue agenda within the Democratic primary,” Tulchin wrote. Looking ahead to next year’s general election, Sanders is much more popular than Clinton with independents and he is much better positioned with Republicans, factors Tulchin said raise “real questions as to which of these leading Democratic candidates is in fact the best positioned for the general election.” In several recent surveys Sanders outperformed Clinton in matchups with Republicans. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Nov. 3, Sanders outpolled Donald Trump by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent, and the Vermont senator beat Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. In a McClatchy/Marist poll released Nov. 13, Sanders outpolled Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina. Sanders outperformed Clinton against Cruz and Bush. In a new poll in Colorado, Sanders fared better than Clinton when pitted against four leading Republican White House hopefuls. Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, said Clinton “would get bruised and beaten by all the top GOP opponents, and absolutely crushed” by Rubio or Carson. With the first primaries and caucuses less than three months away, the survey findings warn that Clinton “has real vulnerabilities within the Democratic primary electorate,” particularly for “being too close to special interests and Wall Street.” The analysis of recent polls for CBS News, NBC News, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal underscored the fact that Sanders has closed the gap with Clinton since he declared his candidacy on April 30. Half a year ago, Sanders barely registered in polls and pundits dismissed his chances. Today, Sanders “has made tremendous progress and is now the leading Democratic challenger to Hillary Clinton and within striking distance of her,” according to the memo. Nationally, Sanders trailed by 30 points in a New York Times/CBS News poll in September (58 percent to 28 percent) but trailed by only 19 points (52 percent to 33 percent) in the latest survey. In fact, Sanders gained a net 5 points on Hillary over the past month, a period one published report declared “the best month ever” for Clinton. In Iowa and New Hampshire, the states with the first caucuses and primary elections next February, the survey show that the more people know about Sanders the better they like him. “The bottom line is that as Democratic primary voters in key early voting states become more familiar with Sanders, they very much like what they hear and are much more likely to vote for him, thereby putting Sanders on a trajectory to make the Democratic primary horserace even more competitive as he campaigns aggressively and begins to advertise to get his message out more broadly.,” the pollster wrote. To put the numbers in historical context, then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2007 trailed Clinton by 27 points at the same stage of that campaign. A Gallup Poll released on Nov. 16, 2007, put her ahead with 48 percent of the vote to Obama’s 21 percent.

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Tulchin Research is Officially Bernie Sanders’ Pollster

October 26th, 2015 · News

Sanders Team Exciting news here at Tulchin Research, we are officially a part of Bernie Sanders' Presidential Campaign! Please check out the links below of recent media coverage detailing our work with Bernie's campaign as well as his official campaign website. Here at Tulchin research we are #feelingthebern!   New York Time's Article- Bernie Sanders Hires Pollster Who Worked on Dean Campaign "Mr. Sanders’s campaign, flush with cash from low-dollar donors, has hired a pollster of its own, his senior adviser Tad Devine confirmed. Mr. Sanders has brought on Ben Tulchin, who polled for Howard Dean, the insurgent Democratic presidential candidate of the 2004 cycle." Yahoo News Live-Debate day-after: Sanders raises cash, Clinton camp pleased "In another sign of its maturing operation, the campaign has hired Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin, whose past clients have included former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who ran for president in 2004, former California Gov. Gray Davis and Sen. Patty Murray of Washington state." Bernie Sander's Official Campaign Website kromp sanders    

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Voters Strongly Support Public Access to Police Misconduct Reports, Body Cam Footage

August 26th, 2015 · News

aclu Tulchin Research recently conducted a California statewide survey on behalf of the ACLU of California Center for Advocacy & Policy to assess how likely voters think and feel about criminal justice and law enforcement, especially with regard to police misconduct. With the issue in the news in recent months due to high profile events, this research aims to gauge voter sentiments towards these issues in California specifically and help inform elected officials in Sacramento about the public’s desire to reform how police interact with the public, especially in communities of color. The poll found California voters want more transparency with how police misconduct cases are handled. Specifically, they demand public access to investigations of acts of misconduct and use of force by police. Voters see body cameras on police officers as a helpful tool in making policing more transparent and for holding officers accountable for how they interact with the public, especially in cases of misconduct and use of force. Furthermore, voters want access to the footage, especially when force or misconduct is involved.   Read Detailed Polling Data Here. Read the ACLU Press Release Here. Regards, The Tulchin Research Team   Contact Us     To find out more about Tulchin Research and how we can help you with your research needs, visit our website, www.tulchinresearch.com, email Ben at ben@tulchinresearch.com, or call us at (415) 874-7441.  

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