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Op-Ed: Bernie Sanders’ pollster explains how Clinton can gain ground with millennial voters

October 6th, 2016 · News

Check out the link to the article here Ben Tulchin With the presidential race still too tight for comfort, polls point to one demographic where  Hillary Clinton could gain ground: millennial voters. In the final weeks, can she win over these 18- to 35-year-olds and keep them from throwing their support to third-party candidates? As the pollster for  Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign, I learned a lot about what issues engage this generation. Sanders didn’t start off with overwhelming support from millennials, after all. His campaign had to develop a strategy to earn their vote, and Clinton could still do the same. We learned from an extensive amount of survey research and focus groups that millennials are fundamentally progressive. How progressive? Among Democratic and independent millennials in some states, support for gay marriage is as high as 92%. Still, they feel they’ve been dealt a bad hand of economic recession, wage stagnation and political gridlock. They want income inequality, racial justice and climate change addressed urgently. Their mediocre job prospects and high levels of college debt led to overwhelming support for Sanders’ plan for free college tuition; up to 90% of Democratic and independent millennials in key states back the idea. But it wasn’t just economic issues that resonated with this generation. We also had In Michigan, for example, our first poll found Sanders leading Clinton among millennials by just 19 points. But once they heard his position on criminal justice reform, Flint’s tainted water, and his plan to provide free college tuition, he took a commanding 45-point lead in the survey. Notably, he gained ground with both white and African American millennials. We then did focus groups among young swing voters in Detroit. We showed them a series of ads to see which moved them. An ad focused on Flint’s water crisis stood out, as did one featuring Erica Garner, whose father was killed by police on TV. The latter brought many to tears and swayed several of these previously undecided voters. As one African American young man commented, “Now that is talking about the real issues facing our community.” This research laid the foundation for the Michigan Miracle, Sanders’ surprising upset in the primary. He won 81% of millennials in that primary. While Clinton is currently underperforming with millennials, she shares their values more than any other candidate. In a recent New York Times/CBS poll, however, 26% said they’d vote for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, and 10% said they’d vote for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. This is a huge pool of potential voters who abhor Trump and everything he stands for but are not yet backing Clinton. To turn them into Clinton supporters, her campaign will need to make a focused effort to show them that she authentically shares their values and is committed to addressing the issues they see as urgent. The college affordability plan she announced over the summer with Sanders was a good start, but it needs to be reiterated again and again in swing state after swing state. One thing no one disputes about Sanders and why he was so effective: He stayed on message. Clinton cannot simply roll out a policy speech on a college campus and move on. Instead, her team must drive it home with college students and other millennials everywhere day after day, and it must be echoed by a savvy social media campaign. Another opportunity for Clinton is to take a stronger stand in support of the Black Lives Matter movement in response to the recent shootings of unarmed black men by police. We found this was one of the most potent issues with millennials, regardless of ethnicity, in nearly all of the 46 states in which we polled. If Clinton were to stand firmly with African Americans and fully acknowledge their grievances with the criminal justice system, that would likely surprise millennials. Taking such a bold stand on a controversial issue would help Clinton connect with them on a cause about which they care deeply. While her advisors may recommend a more risk-averse approach, I would argue that this move makes political sense. Her upside with this large progressive generation could be significant, whereas even moderate Republicans are solidifying against her, leaving her little room to grow with them. While Clinton appears to have gotten a bump after the first presidential debate, her lead is still too thin considering she’s running against the most unpopular candidate in modern presidential history. She has a legitimate opportunity to make headway with this sizable and progressive generation. If the Clinton campaign gets the strategy, tone and focus just right, millennials can make the difference in this election and put the country’s first female president in the White House. Ben Tulchin, President of Tulchin Research, served as the pollster for Bernie Sanders’ campaign. Follow Tulchin Research on Facebook and Twitter


Memo: Drug Price Relief Act Begins with Strong 73% Support from Californians

August 3rd, 2016 · News

Press-Release-POST-DEFAULT-LOGO Yes on Prop 61/Californians for Lower Drug Prices has released the results of a statewide survey that demonstrates strong, across-the-board support for Proposition 61, The California Drug Price Relief Act, a measure to reduce drug prices paid by the State of California. “We’re pleased that California voters have expressed such strong support for this initiative to cap drug prices,” said Garry South, lead strategist for the Yes on Prop. 61 campaign. “We don’t underestimate the effect of Big Pharma’s $100-million campaign of lies, distortions and self-serving misstatements about Prop. 61, but we start off in a very strong position. We’ll see if voters get as sick and tired of the Pharma ads against 61 as they are of the omnipresent drug-pushing ads that dominate the TV screen.” Tulchin Research conducted the statewide survey on behalf of Yes on Proposition 61 to assess the prospects of the statewide ballot measure to help reduce the state’s prescription drug costs by requiring the state to purchase drugs from drug companies at the lowest price those companies charge the federal government. The results reveal strong bipartisan support for the measure across the state. The survey finds that nearly three-quarters of voters would vote yes in support of Proposition 61 (73% yes with leaners, 66% without leaners). “Our research finds Proposition 61, the measure to lower drug prices in California, carries strong support among voters across the state and across key demographic groups,” said Ben Tulchin, president of Tulchin Research, and the chief pollster for the Bernie Sanders for president campaign. “Voters recognize the high cost of prescription drugs and support this effort to address the problem.” According to Tulchin, the strong majority support for Proposition 61 extends across nearly all demographic groups across the state including party, region, ethnicity and age. For example, the measure is supported (total yes) by:
  • 77% of Democrats
  • 70% of Republicans
  • 71% of Los Angeles area voters
  • 70% of Bay Area voters
  • 74% of San Diego voters
  • 73% of Sacramento voters
  • 75% of White voters
  • 72% of Latino voters
  • 81% of African-American voters
  • 73% of voters 18-49
  • 73% of voters 50+
See the full memo by clicking here: Californians for Lower Drug Prices Memo Tulchin Research conducted the statewide online survey in California among 800 likely November 2016 voters. Interviews were conducted from July 21-24, 2016. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.46 percent. Proposition 61, on the November ballot, would require the state of California to negotiate with drug companies for drug prices that are no more than is paid for the same drugs by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA).  Unlike Medicare, the DVA negotiates for drug prices on behalf of the millions of veterans it serves, and pays on average 20-24 percent less for medications than other government agencies, and up to 40 percent less than Medicare Part D.  Prop. 61 empowers the state, as the healthcare buyer for millions of Californians, to negotiate the same or an even better deal for taxpayers, saving the state billions.


Memo: Why Bernie Sanders is Best to Defeat Donald Trump

March 29th, 2016 · News

Follow the link below to view our latest campaign memo on the state of the race. Tulchin Research Memo - Sanders Strongest Democrat 3-28-16 final


We’ve Moved!

January 4th, 2016 · News

Please contact us at our new address and phone number listed below.

Phone: (415) 576-1072

Address: 220 Sansome St #1360

San Francisco, CA 94104

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Bernie Sanders for President Polling Memo

November 18th, 2015 · News


‘Very Encouraging’ News for Sanders in Polls, Sanders Beats Republicans in General Election Matchups, Clinton Fares Poorly Among Independents and Republicans, Voters See Clinton as ‘Too Close to Special Interests and Wall Street’
WASHINGTON – Recent polls for major news organizations contained “very encouraging news” for Sen. Bernie Sanders and warning signs on Hillary Clinton’s general election prospects should she win the nomination, according to a memorandum by polling and strategic consulting expert Ben Tulchin. Significantly, Sanders fares better than Clinton in many head-to-head matchups with leading Republicans. The independent surveys show the senator from Vermont continues to close the gap with the former secretary of state while voters’ familiarity with Sanders and his favorability ratings are steadily rising, Sanders’ pollster said. Moreover, Sanders’ agenda has dominated the debate. His message about a rigged economy propped up by a corrupt campaign finance system “is driving the issue agenda within the Democratic primary,” Tulchin wrote. Looking ahead to next year’s general election, Sanders is much more popular than Clinton with independents and he is much better positioned with Republicans, factors Tulchin said raise “real questions as to which of these leading Democratic candidates is in fact the best positioned for the general election.” In several recent surveys Sanders outperformed Clinton in matchups with Republicans. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Nov. 3, Sanders outpolled Donald Trump by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent, and the Vermont senator beat Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. In a McClatchy/Marist poll released Nov. 13, Sanders outpolled Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Sen. Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina. Sanders outperformed Clinton against Cruz and Bush. In a new poll in Colorado, Sanders fared better than Clinton when pitted against four leading Republican White House hopefuls. Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, said Clinton “would get bruised and beaten by all the top GOP opponents, and absolutely crushed” by Rubio or Carson. With the first primaries and caucuses less than three months away, the survey findings warn that Clinton “has real vulnerabilities within the Democratic primary electorate,” particularly for “being too close to special interests and Wall Street.” The analysis of recent polls for CBS News, NBC News, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal underscored the fact that Sanders has closed the gap with Clinton since he declared his candidacy on April 30. Half a year ago, Sanders barely registered in polls and pundits dismissed his chances. Today, Sanders “has made tremendous progress and is now the leading Democratic challenger to Hillary Clinton and within striking distance of her,” according to the memo. Nationally, Sanders trailed by 30 points in a New York Times/CBS News poll in September (58 percent to 28 percent) but trailed by only 19 points (52 percent to 33 percent) in the latest survey. In fact, Sanders gained a net 5 points on Hillary over the past month, a period one published report declared “the best month ever” for Clinton. In Iowa and New Hampshire, the states with the first caucuses and primary elections next February, the survey show that the more people know about Sanders the better they like him. “The bottom line is that as Democratic primary voters in key early voting states become more familiar with Sanders, they very much like what they hear and are much more likely to vote for him, thereby putting Sanders on a trajectory to make the Democratic primary horserace even more competitive as he campaigns aggressively and begins to advertise to get his message out more broadly.,” the pollster wrote. To put the numbers in historical context, then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2007 trailed Clinton by 27 points at the same stage of that campaign. A Gallup Poll released on Nov. 16, 2007, put her ahead with 48 percent of the vote to Obama’s 21 percent.


Tulchin Research is Officially Bernie Sanders’ Pollster

October 26th, 2015 · News

Sanders Team Exciting news here at Tulchin Research, we are officially a part of Bernie Sanders' Presidential Campaign! Please check out the links below of recent media coverage detailing our work with Bernie's campaign as well as his official campaign website. Here at Tulchin research we are #feelingthebern!   New York Time's Article- Bernie Sanders Hires Pollster Who Worked on Dean Campaign "Mr. Sanders’s campaign, flush with cash from low-dollar donors, has hired a pollster of its own, his senior adviser Tad Devine confirmed. Mr. Sanders has brought on Ben Tulchin, who polled for Howard Dean, the insurgent Democratic presidential candidate of the 2004 cycle." Yahoo News Live-Debate day-after: Sanders raises cash, Clinton camp pleased "In another sign of its maturing operation, the campaign has hired Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin, whose past clients have included former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who ran for president in 2004, former California Gov. Gray Davis and Sen. Patty Murray of Washington state." Bernie Sander's Official Campaign Website kromp sanders    


Voters Strongly Support Public Access to Police Misconduct Reports, Body Cam Footage

August 26th, 2015 · News

aclu Tulchin Research recently conducted a California statewide survey on behalf of the ACLU of California Center for Advocacy & Policy to assess how likely voters think and feel about criminal justice and law enforcement, especially with regard to police misconduct. With the issue in the news in recent months due to high profile events, this research aims to gauge voter sentiments towards these issues in California specifically and help inform elected officials in Sacramento about the public’s desire to reform how police interact with the public, especially in communities of color. The poll found California voters want more transparency with how police misconduct cases are handled. Specifically, they demand public access to investigations of acts of misconduct and use of force by police. Voters see body cameras on police officers as a helpful tool in making policing more transparent and for holding officers accountable for how they interact with the public, especially in cases of misconduct and use of force. Furthermore, voters want access to the footage, especially when force or misconduct is involved.   Read Detailed Polling Data Here. Read the ACLU Press Release Here. Regards, The Tulchin Research Team   Contact Us     To find out more about Tulchin Research and how we can help you with your research needs, visit our website, www.tulchinresearch.com, email Ben at ben@tulchinresearch.com, or call us at (415) 874-7441.  


New Poll Results: 67% of Californians support a bill to curb racial profiling

August 13th, 2015 · Poll release


New Tulchin Research Poll Shows Majority of California Voters Support ACLU-backed Assembly Bill 953 to Curb Racial Profiling
A new Tulchin Research poll, conducted on behalf of the ACLU of California Center for Advocacy & Policy, finds that a solid majority of voters in California believe police discriminate against communities of color and support proposals to address the current crisis in biased policing. According to a new poll conducted by Tulchin Research, 67% of likely California voters support AB 953: The Racial and Identity Profiling Act of 2015, a state bill introduced by Assemblymember Shirley Weber (D-San Diego) to combat racial and identity profiling by law enforcement. The poll results of 900 likely November 2016 voters come as the bill heads to the California Senate Appropriations Committee. Other Notable Findings • Nationwide events: Nearly every voter (95%) reports having heard of the recent high-profile police shootings and misconduct cases in Ferguson, New York and Charleston and most voters (80%) believe something like that could very well happen in California. • Police discrimination: 71 percent of California voters believe police are most likely to discriminate against young black men. Similarly, voters view Latinos (58%) and young Latino men (61%) as groups that are more likely to be discriminated against. • Use of force legislation: There is strong voter support (71%) for legislation aimed to increase transparency and accountability when it comes to law enforcement’s use of force reporting practices, such as AB 619 (Weber) and AB 71 (Rodriguez). Click here to read the official ACLU press release Click here to read Tulchin Research's full poll memo