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Tulchin Research is a leading polling and strategic consulting firm. The company conducts public opinion research for a wide range of clients. We specialize in providing research and consulting services to candidates for elected office, ballot measure campaigns, labor unions, non-profits, corporations, and foundations.
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Californians Back “Medicare for All” Solution

June 1st, 2017 · News

A new California statewide poll conducted by Tulchin Research on behalf of the California Nurses Association finds overwhelming, broad-based support for the Healthy California Act (S.B. 562), which would establish a “Medicare for All” like system of universal health coverage for Golden State residents. While California voters are nearly unanimous (89%) in believing that our healthcare system needs reform, they strongly reject the plan supported by Donald Trump and recently passed by House Republican – with 59% saying they oppose the American Health Care Act (AHCA) to just 32% who support it. Instead, voters overwhelmingly support moving to a single-payer system of universal health coverage, with more than 7 in 10 (72%) saying they support expanding Medicare to provide health insurance to every American. But Californians aren’t willing to wait for Washington. Based on a basic description of the Healthy California Act, 70% of voters say they back this effort to establish a state-based single-payer system to 22% who oppose it. Attracting majority support from across the political spectrum, the bill is backed by 79% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 53% of Republicans. As California legislators consider voting on the Healthy California Act, they should take note not only of the bill’s strong popular support but also of new evidence finding it would result in enormous cost savings. A report this week by economists at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst finds the plan could save Californians $37.5 billion annually in healthcare costs – even as it extends coverage to the state’s 3 million currently uninsured residents. Read the full memo here: Healthy California Act Survey public memo 5-17 final Read about it around the web: The Mercury News – Universal health plan would save Californians $37 billion annually, study says Common Dreams – New Analysis Shows ‘Medicare for All’ Can Cover Everyone While Cutting Costs Highland Community News – New Poll: 70% of Californians Support CA Medicare for All Bill    

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New Statewide Poll Shows Californians Overwhelmingly Support Seawater Desalination

May 4th, 2017 · News

tulchin logo3 WVCINew Statewide Poll Shows Californians Overwhelmingly Support Seawater Desalination

Nine out of ten voters favor desalination efforts in California

Orange County, CA, [May 04, 2017] – A new statewide poll released today by Tulchin Research and commissioned by the William C. Velasquez Institute, found that California voters overwhelmingly support water desalination. Furthermore, the poll results show, across every demographic group, that Californians are more likely to vote for a candidate for elected office who supports water desalination projects.

According to the results of the survey, which reached 500 likely voters from April 20-24, 2017, Californians are strongly in favor of water desalination and an overwhelming majority want to see the state approve more desalination plants. Notably, nine out of ten voters (90%) favor desalination efforts, including a majority (56%) that strongly favors these efforts. Conversely, just five percent of voters oppose desalination efforts while five percent of voters are undecided.

More specifically, support for water desalination in California is also felt across every key demographic group in the state:

  • 94 percent of men and 87 percent of women in favor;
  • Republicans (92%), Democrats (90%) and independents (89%) all in favor of desalination efforts;
  • A solid majority of voters in every region of the state favors water desalination, including voters in Sacramento/North State and the Central Valley (93% favor in both regions) followed by voters in the Bay Area (91%), the L.A. area (90%), L.A. County (89%) and San Diego (85%);
  • There is also strong support for desalination efforts among every ethnic group in the state, including Caucasian and Asian voters (91%), Latinos (90%), and African Americans (81%);
  • Voters under age 50 (92%) and over age 50 (89%) favor desalination at nearly equally high levels.

“Very few issues show such overwhelming support as does desalination in California,” said Ben Tulchin, President of Tulchin Research. “Elected officials and candidates for elected office should certainly take note that their constituents clearly want seawater desalination as a source of drinking water in the state.”

“The results of this survey add to the mounting evidence that the majority of the state is in favor of desalination as a way to provide a secure source of drinking water for our communities,” said Antonio Gonzalez, President, of the William C. Velasquez Institute. “The Huntington Beach Desalination Facility will be a blessing for the nearly 1 million Latinos living in Orange County.”

The survey also asked voters about their feelings toward local elected officials and their likelihood to vote for a candidate based on their position on water desalination. Over three-quarters of voters (78% total likely, 31% much more likely) say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate for elected office who supports seawater desalination compared to just six percent who say they would be less likely and another 17 percent are unsure. This strong preference for a candidate who supports funding water desalination plants holds across both partisan and regional lines.

In addition, voters also overwhelmingly support (87%) paying a few dollars more a month for desalinated water in the short term. When presented arguments from both sides of the debate, respondents favored desalination at 78%.

The survey was commissioned by the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI) in Los Angeles. WVCI is a tax-exempt, non-profit, non-partisan organization chartered in 1985. The purpose of WCVI is to: conduct research aimed at improving the level of political and economic participation in Latino and other underrepresented communities; To provide information to Latino leaders relevant to the needs of their constituents; To inform the Latino leadership and public about the impact of public policies on Latinos; To inform the Latino leadership and public about political opinions and behavior of Latinos.

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See the full memo by clicking here:  CA Seawater Desalination 388-A - Full Memo - 5-17 - Final

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MEDIA ADVISORY: Press Briefing to Reveal Voters’ Attitudes Towards Drinking Water Sources And Desalination

May 4th, 2017 · News

WVCIPress Briefing to Reveal Voters' Attitudes Towards Drinking Water Sources And Desalination

Tulchin Research and the William C. Velasquez Institute to host and allow opportunity for questions

  Orange County, CA, [May 04, 2017] – Today, Tulchin Research will announce the results of a new statewide poll that asked 500 likely voters their feelings about drinking water sources in California. The research was commissioned by the William C. Velasquez Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization with the purpose of conducting research to improve the level of political and economic participation in Latino and other underrepresented communities. Please join us for a press call to go over the results of the poll. There will also be an opportunity for press to ask questions. What:              Teleconference with Tulchin Research to go over polling data, poll methodology, and Q&A When:             Thursday, May 04, 2017 Time:              11:30 a.m. Dial:                1-800-230-1074 Who:               Ben Tulchin, President and Founder of Tulchin Research Antonio Gonzalez, President of the William C. Velasquez Institute R.S.V.P:          Please rsvp to Tatiana Stewart at (916) 444-1380 or tstewart@mercuryllc.com.  

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Memo: Poll Finds One in Eight California Voters Identifies as LGBT

March 22nd, 2017 · News

  logo   Poll Finds One in Eight California Voters Identifies as LGBT San Francisco —Equality California announced on March 2, 2017 that a poll conducted by Tulchin Research in January 2017 has found that 12 percent of California voters identify as being members of the LGBT community. The online survey of 600 registered voters asked “are you a member of the LGBT community.” The answers showed notable divisions by age, with 16 percent of respondents ages 18-29 identifying as LGBT, while 10 percent of those aged 40 and above did so. The survey shows significantly more people identifying as part of the LGBT community across all age categories than has traditionally been the case in previous polls conducted by telephone. “This poll gives us new data indicating that the number of LGBT people who are part of the California electorate is significantly higher than previously estimated,” said Rick Zbur, executive director of Equality California. “Because of our decades-long fight for full equality and social justice, it’s not surprising that LGBT people are especially engaged in the political process and appear to make up a significant percentage of the voting public. LGBT organizations have traditionally estimated that LGBT people comprise four to 10 percent of the general population, based in part on surveys that set the number at the low end of that range. Homophobia and a lack of acceptance make many LGBT people unwilling to disclose their sexual orientation or gender identity publicly or to a stranger over the phone.  While this is only one survey, it used sound methodology to examine a statistically valid sample of California registered voters and demonstrates that LGBT people make up one of California’s largest voting blocs.” “Politicians take note: with 12 percent of the electorate, LGBT people make up one of the largest voting blocs in California and our issues must not be ignored,” said Assemblymember Evan Low (D-Silicon Valley) chair of the California Legislative LGBT Caucus. “With strength in numbers, LGBT voters stand ready to hold their elected representatives accountable.” Tulchin Research pollsters believe that the wording of the question and the anonymity of completing a survey online, rather than giving sensitive answers to a stranger over the phone, contributed to higher numbers identifying as LGBT.

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National Journal Article – Ben Tulchin on the Impact of Donald Trump in Congressional Races

October 28th, 2016 · News

The Late-Breaking Democratic House Targets

The party sees fresh opportunities in districts that have previously gone uncontested. By Kimberly Railey Repub­lic­ans are likely to re­tain their House ma­jor­ity, but a hand­ful of late-break­ing races are sud­denly for­cing the party to play de­fense in un­ex­pec­ted ter­rit­ory. Most stun­ningly, na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­ans are steer­ing $1.2 mil­lion to an open seat in In­di­ana that Mitt Rom­ney last car­ried by double di­gits. In Flor­ida, the party is send­ing $1.4 mil­lion to try to bail out vet­er­an Rep. John Mica in a newly re­drawn dis­trict. And in Cali­for­nia, Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Dar­rell Issa, the wealth­i­est mem­ber of Con­gress, is fight­ing strong head­winds in af­flu­ent sub­urbs where Don­ald Trump is highly un­pop­u­lar. “There is a col­lect­ive will on the Re­pub­lic­an side to make sure we don’t leave any­thing to chance,” said one GOP strategist in­volved with House races and gran­ted an­onym­ity to speak can­didly. “This is a really weird elec­tion.” To Demo­crats, the new spend­ing sig­nals an en­vir­on­ment break­ing in their fa­vor. “Some of these Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bents have not done the work they needed to shore up their dis­tricts, and we’re see­ing Demo­crat­ic en­thu­si­asm and a dis­taste for the Re­pub­lic­an Party among in­de­pend­ents that very well could lead to pick­ing up one, two, or all three of these seats,” said Alix­an­dria Lapp, the ex­ec­ut­ive dir­ect­or of House Ma­jor­ity PAC. In In­di­ana’s open 9th Dis­trict, which Trump is ex­pec­ted to com­fort­ably carry, unique can­did­ate cir­cum­stances have promp­ted a rare burst of spend­ing. Re­pub­lic­ans nom­in­ated Trey Hollings­worth, a Ten­ness­ee busi­ness­man who took a beat­ing in the primary for only re­cently mov­ing to the dis­trict and for heav­ily self-fund­ing. In the months since, even Re­pub­lic­ans con­cede that his im­age hasn’t sig­ni­fic­antly im­proved. Demo­crat Shelli Yo­der, who was Miss In­di­ana in 1992, of­fers an un­help­ful con­trast for Hollings­worth, and House Ma­jor­ity PAC is spend­ing $650,000 in the dis­trict on her be­half. Hollings­worth’s cam­paign is jump­ing on that out­side help to tie Yo­der to House Minor­ity Lead­er Nancy Pelosi. “Those mor­als, val­ues, and ideals don’t line up with where Hoo­siers stand,” said Rob Bur­gess, a Hollings­worth spokes­man. Most GOP strategists be­lieve that Hollings­worth will ul­ti­mately pre­vail thanks to the dis­trict’s par­tis­an lean. And on the whole, Re­pub­lic­ans deny their that new spend­ing there—or in Flor­ida—points to a dra­mat­ic­ally ex­pan­ded bat­tle­field. “Demo­crats failed to re­cruit in a slew of com­pet­it­ive seats that they des­per­ately needed to win in or­der to ever reach the ma­jor­ity,” said Katie Mar­tin, a spokes­wo­man for the Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Con­gres­sion­al Com­mit­tee. Still, Re­pub­lic­ans con­cede that they have a re­mark­ably tough fight in Mica’s Cent­ral Flor­ida dis­trict, where the NR­CC dir­ec­ted a late wave of spend­ing. Un­der Flor­ida’s new con­gres­sion­al map, Pres­id­ent Obama and Mitt Rom­ney would have dead­locked in the 7th Dis­trict with 49 per­cent of the vote. Demo­crats fielded polit­ic­al new­comer Stephanie Murphy, a na­tion­al se­cur­ity spe­cial­ist who fled com­mun­ist Vi­et­nam by boat with her fam­ily. Already, Demo­crat­ic groups have shelled out nearly $4 mil­lion to boost her bid. Even Re­pub­lic­ans lament that the 38-year-old Murphy is a com­pel­ling can­did­ate against Mica, a 12-term in­cum­bent. Privately, they grumble that Mica could have done more to in­su­late him­self from a chal­lenge, in­tro­du­cing him­self earli­er to the por­tion of the dis­trict he didn’t pre­vi­ously rep­res­ent and amass­ing stronger fun­drais­ing hauls. In an in­ter­view, Mica pushed back against cri­ti­cism that he has not run an ag­gress­ive enough cam­paign. Ac­cord­ing to his in­tern­al polling, he ad­ded, he is beat­ing Murphy in the part of the dis­trict that is new. “They don’t have a clue,” he said of his crit­ics with­in the party. “We tar­geted the new part of the dis­trict in the primary. We walked it, we called it, we mailed it—you couldn’t do any more than we did.” But the NR­CC still saw reas­on to pump in $1.4 mil­lion for him in the race’s fi­nal two weeks, launch­ing its first TV ad Wed­nes­day. In Cali­for­nia, Re­pub­lic­ans also be­lieve Issa waited too long to mount a for­mid­able cam­paign. His race took on na­tion­al at­ten­tion in June, when Demo­crat Doug Ap­pleg­ate pulled in a sur­pris­ing 45 per­cent of the vote in the top-two primary after run­ning a fairly mod­est cam­paign. Re­pub­lic­ans said Issa could have shut down this race by spend­ing more money over the sum­mer, but he only re­cently went on the air. Mean­while, Issa has emerged as a strong sup­port­er of Trump, un­like many of his vul­ner­able GOP col­leagues. “This is a great proof point for the im­pact Trump has had,” said Demo­crat­ic poll­ster Ben Tulchin, who works on the race for the Demo­crat­ic Con­gres­sion­al Cam­paign Com­mit­tee’s in­de­pend­ent-ex­pendit­ure arm. The NR­CC has not spent in the 49th Dis­trict, per­haps a res­ult of Issa’s per­son­al wealth. Demo­crat­ic groups have steered more than $3 mil­lion to the dis­trict. “I think Nancy Pelosi is cer­tainly com­ing after the con­gress­man, and I think the con­gress­man wanted to make sure we were us­ing our money in the best way pos­sible,” said Issa spokes­man Calv­in Moore, de­fend­ing the cam­paign’s spend­ing de­cisions. Some oth­er re­cent in­vest­ments from GOP groups have raised eye­brows. The NR­CC launched an ad this week in Min­nesota tar­get­ing Demo­crat Terri Bonoff, des­pite pub­lic polls show­ing Re­pub­lic­an Rep. Erik Paulsen com­fort­ably lead­ing. The DCCC is con­tinu­ing to spend money in the race, and House Ma­jor­ity PAC re­cently ad­ded $800,000 to the dis­trict, after can­celing re­ser­va­tions there last month, ac­cord­ing to a Demo­crat­ic source. The Amer­ic­an Ac­tion Net­work is in­vest­ing in Vir­gin­ia’s 5th Dis­trict and Pennsylvania’s 16th Dis­trict, part of the GOP group’s ef­forts to build a Re­pub­lic­an fire­wall, along with its sis­ter su­per PAC, the Con­gres­sion­al Lead­er­ship Fund. An ex­pand­ing map is un­ques­tion­ably a pos­it­ive for Demo­crats, but the party likely won’t be match­ing Re­pub­lic­ans in some of those reach dis­tricts. “We are really only lim­ited by our budget in terms of the places we can go play,” Lapp said. Check out the link to the article here

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Op-Ed: Bernie Sanders’ pollster explains how Clinton can gain ground with millennial voters

October 6th, 2016 · News

Check out the link to the article here Ben Tulchin With the presidential race still too tight for comfort, polls point to one demographic where  Hillary Clinton could gain ground: millennial voters. In the final weeks, can she win over these 18- to 35-year-olds and keep them from throwing their support to third-party candidates? As the pollster for  Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign, I learned a lot about what issues engage this generation. Sanders didn’t start off with overwhelming support from millennials, after all. His campaign had to develop a strategy to earn their vote, and Clinton could still do the same. We learned from an extensive amount of survey research and focus groups that millennials are fundamentally progressive. How progressive? Among Democratic and independent millennials in some states, support for gay marriage is as high as 92%. Still, they feel they’ve been dealt a bad hand of economic recession, wage stagnation and political gridlock. They want income inequality, racial justice and climate change addressed urgently. Their mediocre job prospects and high levels of college debt led to overwhelming support for Sanders’ plan for free college tuition; up to 90% of Democratic and independent millennials in key states back the idea. But it wasn’t just economic issues that resonated with this generation. We also had In Michigan, for example, our first poll found Sanders leading Clinton among millennials by just 19 points. But once they heard his position on criminal justice reform, Flint’s tainted water, and his plan to provide free college tuition, he took a commanding 45-point lead in the survey. Notably, he gained ground with both white and African American millennials. We then did focus groups among young swing voters in Detroit. We showed them a series of ads to see which moved them. An ad focused on Flint’s water crisis stood out, as did one featuring Erica Garner, whose father was killed by police on TV. The latter brought many to tears and swayed several of these previously undecided voters. As one African American young man commented, “Now that is talking about the real issues facing our community.” This research laid the foundation for the Michigan Miracle, Sanders’ surprising upset in the primary. He won 81% of millennials in that primary. While Clinton is currently underperforming with millennials, she shares their values more than any other candidate. In a recent New York Times/CBS poll, however, 26% said they’d vote for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, and 10% said they’d vote for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. This is a huge pool of potential voters who abhor Trump and everything he stands for but are not yet backing Clinton. To turn them into Clinton supporters, her campaign will need to make a focused effort to show them that she authentically shares their values and is committed to addressing the issues they see as urgent. The college affordability plan she announced over the summer with Sanders was a good start, but it needs to be reiterated again and again in swing state after swing state. One thing no one disputes about Sanders and why he was so effective: He stayed on message. Clinton cannot simply roll out a policy speech on a college campus and move on. Instead, her team must drive it home with college students and other millennials everywhere day after day, and it must be echoed by a savvy social media campaign. Another opportunity for Clinton is to take a stronger stand in support of the Black Lives Matter movement in response to the recent shootings of unarmed black men by police. We found this was one of the most potent issues with millennials, regardless of ethnicity, in nearly all of the 46 states in which we polled. If Clinton were to stand firmly with African Americans and fully acknowledge their grievances with the criminal justice system, that would likely surprise millennials. Taking such a bold stand on a controversial issue would help Clinton connect with them on a cause about which they care deeply. While her advisors may recommend a more risk-averse approach, I would argue that this move makes political sense. Her upside with this large progressive generation could be significant, whereas even moderate Republicans are solidifying against her, leaving her little room to grow with them. While Clinton appears to have gotten a bump after the first presidential debate, her lead is still too thin considering she’s running against the most unpopular candidate in modern presidential history. She has a legitimate opportunity to make headway with this sizable and progressive generation. If the Clinton campaign gets the strategy, tone and focus just right, millennials can make the difference in this election and put the country’s first female president in the White House. Ben Tulchin, President of Tulchin Research, served as the pollster for Bernie Sanders’ campaign. Follow Tulchin Research on Facebook and Twitter
   

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Memo: Drug Price Relief Act Begins with Strong 73% Support from Californians

August 3rd, 2016 · News

Press-Release-POST-DEFAULT-LOGO Yes on Prop 61/Californians for Lower Drug Prices has released the results of a statewide survey that demonstrates strong, across-the-board support for Proposition 61, The California Drug Price Relief Act, a measure to reduce drug prices paid by the State of California. “We’re pleased that California voters have expressed such strong support for this initiative to cap drug prices,” said Garry South, lead strategist for the Yes on Prop. 61 campaign. “We don’t underestimate the effect of Big Pharma’s $100-million campaign of lies, distortions and self-serving misstatements about Prop. 61, but we start off in a very strong position. We’ll see if voters get as sick and tired of the Pharma ads against 61 as they are of the omnipresent drug-pushing ads that dominate the TV screen.” Tulchin Research conducted the statewide survey on behalf of Yes on Proposition 61 to assess the prospects of the statewide ballot measure to help reduce the state’s prescription drug costs by requiring the state to purchase drugs from drug companies at the lowest price those companies charge the federal government. The results reveal strong bipartisan support for the measure across the state. The survey finds that nearly three-quarters of voters would vote yes in support of Proposition 61 (73% yes with leaners, 66% without leaners). “Our research finds Proposition 61, the measure to lower drug prices in California, carries strong support among voters across the state and across key demographic groups,” said Ben Tulchin, president of Tulchin Research, and the chief pollster for the Bernie Sanders for president campaign. “Voters recognize the high cost of prescription drugs and support this effort to address the problem.” According to Tulchin, the strong majority support for Proposition 61 extends across nearly all demographic groups across the state including party, region, ethnicity and age. For example, the measure is supported (total yes) by:
  • 77% of Democrats
  • 70% of Republicans
  • 71% of Los Angeles area voters
  • 70% of Bay Area voters
  • 74% of San Diego voters
  • 73% of Sacramento voters
  • 75% of White voters
  • 72% of Latino voters
  • 81% of African-American voters
  • 73% of voters 18-49
  • 73% of voters 50+
See the full memo by clicking here: Californians for Lower Drug Prices Memo Tulchin Research conducted the statewide online survey in California among 800 likely November 2016 voters. Interviews were conducted from July 21-24, 2016. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.46 percent. Proposition 61, on the November ballot, would require the state of California to negotiate with drug companies for drug prices that are no more than is paid for the same drugs by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (DVA).  Unlike Medicare, the DVA negotiates for drug prices on behalf of the millions of veterans it serves, and pays on average 20-24 percent less for medications than other government agencies, and up to 40 percent less than Medicare Part D.  Prop. 61 empowers the state, as the healthcare buyer for millions of Californians, to negotiate the same or an even better deal for taxpayers, saving the state billions.

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Memo: Why Bernie Sanders is Best to Defeat Donald Trump

March 29th, 2016 · News

Follow the link below to view our latest campaign memo on the state of the race. Tulchin Research Memo - Sanders Strongest Democrat 3-28-16 final

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